Future collectible cars... (an op-ed)

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Future collectible cars... (an op-ed)

November 28, 2010, 09:09:40 AM

I was just looking at this article on CNN Money, and it got me thinking about future collectible cars. This is not a post about our beloved 80's foxes, which we all hope will some day become collectible (while at the same time we hope they don't, so they'll stay affordable). This is about new, or relatively new cars that will some day command top dollar at auctions like B-J.

The thing that got me thinking about this is that the CNN article tends to go for higher end or more obscure cars. I disagree with this. I think that the collectible cars of the future will be the boring, see-em-on-every-street-corner cars of today. My reasoning is this:

People tend to get nostalgic about their youth. When they get old they tend to miss the things they had or were exposed to in their youth, and they will pay top dollar to obtain those things. The toys I played with in the early 80's are now worth big dollars on eBay. Vintage electronics, such as arcade games, pinball games, old tube-type radios, etc all sell well. Seeing, holding, and interacting with these things invokes those three magic words in most of us that cause us to reach for our wallets: "I remember when".

This applies to cars as well, probably more so than any other item because cars evoke a lot of emotion. And those emotions are stronger for cars we actually related to in our youths than they are for cars that we only read about in magazines or saw on posters. We get more passionate about the cars we saw, drove, worked on, had adventures in, got our first nookie in, and so on. There will always be a market for cars that we wanted but couldn't afford, but I think the real meat and potatoes of the future collectibles market will be the, um, meat and potatoes cars.

History actually backs me up on this. Occasionally you'l hear about a Lotus, Shelby or Ferarri taking in millions of dollars at auctions, but the vast amount of money that changes hands for collectible cars is for vehicles that were ubiquitous in their day. The Mustangs, the Camaros, the Challengers, the Impalas, the Belvederes, the Torinos and Galaxies... all of these cars were cheap and plentiful when new and are now commanding big bucks. This applies even to lowly economy cars as well. Darts, Novas, Falcons, etc all bring fairly high prices, and even the 70's cars that nobody liked are starting to get some attention. When's the last time you saw a Pinto, or a Vega, or a Gremlin, or a Volare in really, really good shape? And how much were these cars going for (if they were even for sale)? They're starting to bring high prices because they're starting to evoke those three little words, "I remember when".

So, what cars do I forsee becoming the collectibles of the future? Certainly not any $80k BMW's, Lexuses (lexii?), etc. No, here's what I see as the future of then collectible car market:

Near term: The cars of the late 70's and 80's are going to start coming into their own. In addition to the expected Fox Mustangs, 3rd gen F-bodies, G-bodies, and yes, even our beloved Thundercats, you're going to start seeing fully restored (or even better, low mile survivor) vehicles you never thought you'd ever see at a car show, including:

The Chevette. Yeah, I know, they suck. They were slow, crude, rustbuckets that fell apart as fast as you put them together. But their drivetrains were dead reliable, they were cheap, and there is hardly a 30-something alive who did not have a hell of a lot of fun in one. A two-door 4-or-5-speed model preferably.

Dodge Omni/024. For all the same reasons as the Chevette, but was also available as the GLH. The pointy, sportier ones (Charger, Rampage) will be more desirable than the base 4-door ones, but there will still be plenty of folks out their who remember their little 4-door pigpen with fondness.

Volkswagen Rabbit/Golf/Scirroco/GTI. Yes, an import. A very popular import, with a very loyal following. Don't be surprised when you see a perfectly restored rabbit at your local show. And don't be surprised by the crowd of people around it.

GM B-body (Caprice, Lesabre, Eighty-Eight, Parisienne) and Ford Panther (Crown Vic, Grand Marquis, Town Car). Scores of us in our late 30's borrowed our parents' boat and went trolling for bootie. Those huge back seats helped out in the scoring dept. Look for a rare two-door model.

Ford Fox variants (Fairmont, Zephyr, LTD, Marquis, Continental, etc) - same reasons as above, but with the added benefit of sharing most chassis with Mustang, which makes them receptive to modifications. And of course the GM A-bodies (Malibu, etc)

The shiznitboxes: Ford Tempaz, GM J-bodies, Chrysler K-cars. For the same reasons as the Chevettes. Two-door manuals preferred, and if you can find a V6 or turbo 4 model all the better.

Mid term: The cars of the 90's should start showing up at shows 15 years or so down the road. Today's 20-somethings will be feeling nostalgic for them in future when most are rsuted away.

The imports. Yes, the imports will really start to gain attention in the mid-term collector market as those "I remember when" memories begin to include riced up Honda Civics, Integras, Eclipses and the like. When they're mostly gone to the s heap these people will start to miss them, and they'll be restoring examples they can find. I suspect you'll see some full on F&F restomods, but don't be surprised to see some bone stock restos as well.

The SUV's. The 90's was the decade they became popular, and down the road today's youth will remember learning to drive in them. Christ, I'm in my late 30's and there are already two SUV's I'd love to own, albeit both are already "vintage": a 1978 Ramcharger and a 1987 Pathfinder. Just like you see fully restored first gen broncos and K-5 blazers going for big bucks now, don't be surprised to see restored Explorers, Blazers, Pathfinders and 4Runners in future shows.

The return of muscle: SN95's and 4-gen F-bodies should go without saying. Perhaps more unexpectedly though, will be the Lumina (Z34's), the Taurus (SHO's), the MN12's (V8 and supercharged V6), and the GM alphabet soup of cars with the supercharged 3800. Don't be shocked to see a V6 Contour or Mystique hiding at a show or two, too. And try not to have a stroke when you see a mint, fully restored V6 Accord Coupe.

Long Term: This would be the cars of today. And anything you may have heard about the 60's being the golden age of muscle, forget it. The golden age of muscle is right now, and just like the 60's it is living on borrowed time thanks to political, social, and environmental pressures. It's hard to even imagine what cars from today will be desirable tomorrow, not because the cars are all bad, but because they're all so ed good. High performance cars like the Mustang, Camaro and Challenger are all givens, but even some mundane vehicles such as the Taurus (especially SHO), Accord (especially in V6, 6-speed coupe form, a rare combo from any manufacturer), Malibu, the new Regal, the Mazda 3 and 6... the list could go on forever. There are some standouts, though, mainly because of their uniqueness.

The Chrysler LX cars (300/Charger/Challenger/Magnum). Full size, RWD, and with a big honking Hemi available across the lineup. The perfect antidote to those boring FWD appliances being offered by everyone else (and those appliances are not so boring themselves!). The Hemi models will of course be most desirable, but there will always be room for lesser models, just like we now see 6-cylinder 60's Mustangs getting big bucks at sales - not as much as V8 models, but big bucks just the same. I own a 300. My personal pick as future collectible versions: Any SRT-8 model of course, but after those, a nice hemi Magnum wagon. Because I think people will look back on them and say "Shoulda had one when I had the chance".

The Hyundai Genesis sedan AND coupe. Both are terrific bargains, offering lots of car for the money. Desirable now, desirable down the road.

The Chevy SS cars: Cobalt, HHR, Impala. The Mazdaspeed cars: 3 and 6. Stupid powerful engines wrapped in mediocre bodies generally driven by idiots that don't even know what they have. Just like in the 60's.

And of course, your run-of-the-mill Fusions, Mazda 6's, Accords, Camries, Malibus, etc.

Of course with any particular car from any particular era the top end models will usually be more desirable (people will want an SHO over a base Taurus, a TC over a base T-Bird, a GT over a base Mustang, etc), but just like nowadays the high end models will trickle some glory down over their lesser bretheren. Hemi Cudas are worth millions, but few would kick a 383 Cuda out of bed for eating crackers.

I knwo many of you will think I'm crazy for including such things as Accords and K-cars. Hey, back in 1957 nobody ever thought that shiny new Bel Air would be worth anything either...

So if you've lasted this long, what are your thoughts, and what do you see as future collectibles?

Future collectible cars... (an op-ed)

Reply #1 – November 28, 2010, 10:23:08 AM

Very good points for the most part. Its hard to believe that a Honda will maybe someday be drooled on at a car show, but I agree it will probably happen.

I do disagree a little on the cars that will be collectable from the 80's. I don't know man...I can't see a Chevette or an Olds 88 ever being a collector car. A conversation piece? Maybe. I think the 80's cars that will bring big dough in the future and are already collectible will be: 442 Cutlass, SS Monte Carlos, and of course the GN's. Iroc-Z Camaro's, Fox body Mustangs, Turbo Coupe's, etc.

I think a lot of the cars that go for high dollar at Barrett-Jackson were dream cars for guys who were either too young or didn't have the money to buy one back in the day. Sure a lot of them owned one back in the day, but a lot of guys had to settle for a Malibu instead of a Chevelle SS or a Falcon instead of a Mustang. Now many of those guys are successful, retired, and reminiscent of their youth. That's why a SS396 Chevelle will always bring more money than say a 4 dr. Impala.

And not to totally disagree with you, but the golden age of muscle was the 60's and early 70's. Trust me...if I drive my S197 Mustang, sure I get a few stares...but drive the '72 Chevelle and people darn near chase you down to get a look or tell you "sweet car". I think that the cars of today are awesome and will always be remembered as new edge muscle or something, but they just will never have the "soul" of the original muscle cars.

Future collectible cars... (an op-ed)

Reply #2 – November 28, 2010, 11:24:29 AM

my god my eyes hurt after reading all this.. but i agree with the post above.. the chevette and olds 88 type cars are just junk now and probably always will be.. they are just cheap 'economy cars' and most people will always see it that way. look at all the cars from the 60's and 70's that still aren't worth shiznit.. yes, your performance model cars will definitely rise from the ashes and become collectors (example: GTP, SS, SC, stang GT/cobra, TC, sport, etc). but your base model cars and front wheel drive, 80's grandmom cars will more than likely never see any real value except on the scale at the s yard. the only base cars i can see ever having real value are your V8 cars.. i'm sorry V6 guys, but i just don't see any 3.8 powered fox being worth anything compared to the TC, Sport and 5.0 base cars.. same goes for 4 cylinder non-turbo mustangs i'm afraid.. but we all know, sooner or later, 90% of them will have smallblocks anyway lol

Future collectible cars... (an op-ed)

Reply #3 – November 28, 2010, 11:28:53 AM

What about quality with the memories? The late 70's and early 80's SUCKED when it came to reliability. Who's going to want to relive those memories?

Future collectible cars... (an op-ed)

Reply #4 – November 28, 2010, 11:40:27 AM

so true

Future collectible cars... (an op-ed)

Reply #5 – November 28, 2010, 11:53:15 AM

Quote from: turbo_88_XR7;343516

my god my eyes hurt after reading all this.. but i agree with the post above.. the chevette and olds 88 type cars are just junk now and probably always will be.. they are just cheap 'economy cars' and most people will always see it that way. look at all the cars from the 60's and 70's that still aren't worth shiznit.. yes, your performance model cars will definitely rise from the ashes and become collectors (example: GTP, SS, SC, stang GT/cobra, TC, sport, etc). but your base model cars and front wheel drive, 80's grandmom cars will more than likely never see any real value except on the scale at the s yard. the only base cars i can see ever having real value are your V8 cars.. i'm sorry V6 guys, but i just don't see any 3.8 powered fox being worth anything compared to the TC, Sport and 5.0 base cars.. same goes for 4 cylinder non-turbo mustangs i'm afraid.. but we all know, sooner or later, 90% of them will have smallblocks anyway lol

I think you may be missing part of the point here. It's not necessarily the motors the cars came with, but the actual cars themselves. People who will "potentially" buy these cars in the future are most likely not going to beef them up. 20 years from now if someone buys a 3.8 CFI Cougar I'm sure the last thing on their mind will be dropping a 5.0 in it. Yes, the cars that made more power will always be the more desirable cars, but there's always the person who, as a kid, took Dad's 3.8 Cougar out for joyrides and longs to find another.

Future collectible cars... (an op-ed)

Reply #6 – November 28, 2010, 12:13:02 PM

The January edition of PHR (Popular Hot Rodding) has an article on this very topic, very interesting read........

Future collectible cars... (an op-ed)

Reply #7 – November 28, 2010, 01:21:31 PM

I'll give you a perfect example of somebody going out of their way to preserve what many would consider to be a turd: Eric and his CFI V6 '84 Cougar.

As for economy cars: The original VW Beetles and Corvairs were the shiznit box econoturds of their day (as were the Falcon, Nova, Valiant, etc) and they are being restored/loved now. Believe me, you WILL see people polishing up their lovingly restored Chevettes, Omnis, etc. And you WILL see people looking at them at car shows. These were many peoples' first cars, or the cars they traveled across the country in with their families, or the cars their fathers polished and shined every day until he fell ill. And though you can never have another first car you can certainly try to revive those memories by getting a similar model.

50tbird88: The only reason people stare at your '72 Chevelle is that it's old. In 1972 it was no more special than a V6 Malibu is now. In 2050, when everyone's driving Apple iCars (or just riding them while they drive themselves), people will look at a 40-year-old 2010 Accord Coupe the same way they look at your Chevelle now.

20thanniver-ls got my point: It's not the engines in the cars, its the cars themselves. And to take that a bit further, it's not the cars themselves, but the memories they represent. It doesn't matter if the car you had so much irresponsible fun in was a Mustang II, a Monte SS, a fox T-Bird or a Chevette, when you see one of those cars it brings you back to those fun times. If your buddy had a $200 K-car that you remember tearing around town and raising hell in, you'll always have fond memories of K-cars. And that, to me, is what makes a car desirable.

Future collectible cars... (an op-ed)

Reply #8 – November 28, 2010, 01:36:32 PM

Quote from: 20thanniver-ls;343521

I think you may be missing part of the point here. It's not necessarily the motors the cars came with, but the actual cars themselves. People who will "potentially" buy these cars in the future are most likely not going to beef them up. 20 years from now if someone buys a 3.8 CFI Cougar I'm sure the last thing on their mind will be dropping a 5.0 in it. Yes, the cars that made more power will always be the more desirable cars, but there's always the person who, as a kid, took Dad's 3.8 Cougar out for joyrides and longs to find another.

my point was, the cars that wore special badges and came with a V8 or a factory power adder will be the collectors.. do you see any high-dollar 6cyl chevelles? no, they're worth a quarter what the SS396 and 454 cars are, if that. in my life-long hunt for a 66-67 chevelle SS project, i've seen UNRESTORED SS's and even base model V8 chevelles go for the price of a restored inline 6 car. why? no one wants the V6 cars. the SC's only saving grace is that glorious charger mounted to the top of the intake, same goes for the GTP and the TC.. which leads to a very good statement.. THANK GOD ford didn't offer an N/A 4cyl tbird, that would just be a disgrace.. if they have, i understand why i've never seen or heard of 1 lol

Future collectible cars... (an op-ed)

Reply #9 – November 28, 2010, 02:03:15 PM

Obviously the high performance versions of cars will be worth more, but the run-of-the-mill versions will still be worth something. 60's 6-cyl Mustangs aren't worth as much as 289 models, but they're still valuable. An SS396 Chevelle would be worth more than a 327 or 350-powered one, but the lesser car is still worth something. And some day the TC will be worth more than V6 and V8 T-Birds, but V6 and V8 T-Birds will still be worth something. And let's face it. For every SS396 or SS454 Chevelle you see at a show you see a half dozen with a 350 or 327. And the beauty is that you can take the base model and make it into an SS PLUS do some upgrades to it to make it even better than a real SS without feeling guilty.

Future collectible cars... (an op-ed)

Reply #10 – November 28, 2010, 02:26:10 PM

i never feel guilt for molesting a specialty badged car.. like a capri RS LOL

Future collectible cars... (an op-ed)

Reply #11 – November 28, 2010, 04:26:36 PM

I agree with the OP to a certain extent. Yeah these cars will have some value one day. You will also see them in shows at some point in the future. The problem is the "following" for the cars. Nobody gives a tinshiznit about a standard econobox omni, charger, chevette, 4 banger stang, etc. There were too many produced and they were disposable cars. The cars that will bring big $$$ are original unmolested cars. Its just a sad fact of life. Most average joes dont realize that the fox chassis cars are more than stangs. They forget that if it wasnt for the 78 Fairmount there would have been no 03/04 Terminator. The point im getting at is, yes, someday the 80's cars will be collectable. Just not $$$ cars.

Future collectible cars... (an op-ed)

Reply #12 – November 28, 2010, 04:38:54 PM

Quote

I'll give you a perfect example of somebody going out of their way to preserve what many would consider to be a turd: Eric and his CFI V6 '84 Cougar.

Yep. It's a polished turd though, and it's allllllll mine.

Future collectible cars... (an op-ed)

Reply #13 – November 28, 2010, 04:52:45 PM

Guess I'll chime in while I'm here...

I have experience with both sides (stock vs. custom). While I'm still an advocate for customization and always will be...stop and take a look around. These cars are all but gone now. The parts supply is drying up big time; yards are crushing the cars for s money, taking out our best chance at restoration parts. Nobody is really making any significant parts that we need. And rust continues to claim car after car.

I'm lucky...I have both a highly stock and highly modified car. It's easy for me to talk. But for everyone else...think long and hard before doing something that you may regret later. Finding a stock car in mint shape is tough and will continue to be tough for a long time. That won't ever change now. Our heyday is over, our great run of parts supply is gone, and NOS is a game that few want to play. Pick your poison.

Future collectible cars... (an op-ed)

Reply #14 – November 28, 2010, 05:57:27 PM

i dont believe people of the day are going to be collecting 80s cars of their youth for themselves, more likely they will collect them just to resell them over and over to eachother like the collector cars of today are.
the day people start trading chevettes on barret jackson like hemicudas is the day i go buy a gun, to shoot myself with.
i love 80s cars and would love to own them all but im counting on society not lasting long enough for them to be collectible.